The Oracle of Omaha

What Does Oracle Of Omaha Mean?

A nickname for Warren Buffett, who is arguably one of the greatest investors of all time. He is called the "Oracle of Omaha" because his investment picks and comments on the market are very closely followed by the investment community, and he lives and works in Omaha, Nebraska.

Warren Buffett is one of the richest men in the world. He built his fortune using a simple yet powerful investment strategy. His investments are long-term positions, accomplished by the purchase of strong companies that are trading well below their intrinsic value. Some of his most well-known investments include Coca-Cola and Gillette.

What Does Berkshire Hathaway Mean?

A holding company for a multitude of businesses run by Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska and began as just a group of textile milling plants, but when Buffett became the controlling shareholder in the mid 1960s he began a progressive strategy of diverting cash flows from the core business into other investments.

Insurance subsidiaries tend to represent the largest pieces of Berkshire Hathaway, but the company manages hundreds of diverse businesses all over the world.

Because of Berkshire Hathaway's long history of operating success and keen stock market investments, the company has grown to be one of the largest in the world in terms of market capitalization. Berkshire stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange in two classes, A shares and B shares. The A shares are noted for their very high prices - in excess of $100,000 per share in 2007.

Early in his career Buffett came across the novel idea to use the "float" from his insurance subsidiaries to invest elsewhere, mainly into focused stock picks that would be held for the long term. Buffett has long eschewed a diversified stock portfolio in favor of a handful of trusted investments that would be overweighted in order to leverage the anticipated return. Over time, his investing prowess became so noted that Berkshire's annual shareholder meetings became a mecca for value investing proponents and the focus of intense media scrutiny.

Warren Buffett is widely considered to be one of the greatest investors of all time, but if you were to ask him who he thinks is the greatest investor he would probably mention one man: his teacher, Benjamin Graham. Graham was an investor and investing mentor who is generally considered to be the father of security analysis and value investing.

His ideas and methods on investing are well documented in his books, "Security Analysis" (1934), and "The Intelligent Investor" (1949), which are two of the most famous investing texts. These texts are often considered to be requisite reading material for any investor, but they aren't easy reads. Here, we'll condense Graham's main investing principles and give you a head start on understanding his winning philosophy.

Principle No.1: Always Invest with a Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is the principle of buying a security at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, which is thought to not only provide high-return opportunities, but also to minimize the downside risk of an investment. In simple terms, Graham's goal was to buy assets worth $1 for $0.50. He did this very, very well.

To Graham, these business assets may have been valuable because of their stable earning power or simply because of their liquid cash value. It wasn't uncommon, for example, for Graham to invest in stocks where the liquid assets on the balance sheet (net of all debt) were worth more than the total market cap of the company (also known as "net nets" to Graham followers). This means that Graham was effectively buying businesses for nothing. While he had a number of other strategies, this was the typical investment strategy for Graham.

This concept is very important for investors to note, as value investing can provide substantial profits once the market inevitably re-evaluates the stock and ups its price to fair value. It also provides protection on the downside if things don't work out as planned and the business falters. The safety net of buying an underlying business for much less than it is worth was the central theme of Graham's success. When chosen carefully, Graham found that a further decline in these undervalued stocks occurred infrequently.

While many of Graham's students succeeded using their own strategies, they all shared the main idea of the "margin of safety".

Principle No.2: Expect Volatility and Profit from It

Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as chances to find great investments. Graham illustrated this with the analogy of "Mr. Market", the imaginary business partner of each and every investor. Mr. Market offers investors a daily price quote at which he would either buy an investor out or sell his share of the business. Sometimes, he will be excited about the prospects for the business and quote a high price. At other times, he is depressed about the business's prospects and will quote a low price.

Because the stock market has these same emotions, the lesson here is that you shouldn't let Mr. Market's views dictate your own emotions, or worse, lead you in your investment decisions. Instead, you should form your own estimates of the business's value based on a sound and rational examination of the facts. Furthermore, you should only buy when the price offered makes sense and sell when the price becomes too high. Put another way, the market will fluctuate - sometimes wildly - but rather than fearing volatility, use it to your advantage to get bargains in the market or to sell out when your holdings become way overvalued.

Here are two strategies that Graham suggested to help mitigate the negative effects of market volatility:

Dollar-Cost Averaging

Dollar-cost averaging is achieved by buying equal dollar amounts of investments at regular intervals. It takes advantage of dips in the price and means that an investor doesn't have to be concerned about buying his or her entire position at the top of the market. Dollar-cost averaging is ideal for passive investors and alleviates them of the responsibility of choosing when and at what price to buy their positions.

Investing in Stocks and Bonds

Graham recommended distributing one's portfolio evenly between stocks and bonds as a way to preserve capital in market downturns while still achieving growth of capital through bond income. Remember, Graham's philosophy was, first and foremost, to preserve capital, and then to try to make it grow. He suggested having 25-75% of your investments in bonds, and varying this based on market conditions. This strategy had the added advantage of keeping investors from boredom, which leads to the temptation to participate in unprofitable trading (i.e. speculating).

Principle No.3: Know What Kind of Investor You Are

Graham advised that investors know their investment selves. To illustrate this, he made clear distinctions among various groups operating in the stock market.

Active Vs. Passive

Graham referred to active and passive investors as "enterprising investors" and "defensive investors".

You only have two real choices: The first is to make a serious commitment in time and energy to become a good investor who equates the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn't your cup of tea, then be content to get a passive, and possibly lower, return but with much less time and work. Graham turned the academic notion of "risk = return" on its head. For him, "Work = Return". The more work you put into your investments, the higher your return should be.

If you have neither the time nor the inclination to do quality research on your investments, then investing in an index is a good alternative. Graham said that the defensive investor could get an average return by simply buying the 30 stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in equal amounts. Both Graham and Buffett said that getting even an average return - for example, equaling the return of the S&P 500 - is more of an accomplishment than it might seem. The fallacy that many people buy into, according to Graham, is that if it's so easy to get an average return with little or no work (through indexing), then just a little more work should yield a slightly higher return. The reality is that most people who try this end up doing much worse than average.

In modern terms, the defensive investor would be an investor in index funds of both stocks and bonds. In essence, they own the entire market, benefiting from the areas that perform the best without trying to predict those areas ahead of time. In doing so, an investor is virtually guaranteed the market's return and avoids doing worse than average by just letting the stock market's overall results dictate long-term returns. According to Graham, beating the market is much easier said than done, and many investors still find they don't beat the market.

Speculator Vs. Investor

Not all people in the stock market are investors. Graham believed that it was critical for people to determine whether they were investors or speculators. The difference is simple: an investor looks at a stock as part of a business and the stockholder as the owner of the business, while the speculator views himself as playing with expensive pieces of paper, with no intrinsic value. For the speculator, value is only determined by what someone will pay for the asset. To paraphrase Graham, there is intelligent speculating as well as intelligent investing - just be sure you understand which you are good at.

Commentary

Graham's basic ideas are timeless and essential for long-term success. He bought into the notion of buying stocks based on the underlying value of a business and turned it into a science at a time when almost all investors viewed stocks as speculative. Graham served as the first great teacher of the investment discipline, as evidenced by those in his intellectual bloodline who developed their own. If you want to improve your investing skills, it doesn't hurt to learn from the best; Graham continues to prove his worth in his disciples, such as Warren Buffett, who have made a habit of beating the market.

Think Like Warren Buffett

Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy.

Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.

1. Think of Stocks as a Business

Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.

That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns.

2. Increase the Size of Your Investment

While it rarely - if ever - makes sense for investors to "put all of their eggs in one basket," putting all your eggs in too many baskets may not be a good thing either. Buffett contends that over-diversification can hamper returns as much as a lack of diversification. That's why he doesn't invest in mutual funds. It's also why he prefers to make significant investments in just a handful of companies.

Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.

Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?

3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover

Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.

The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.

4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks

While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.

Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that.

5. Learn to Think in Probabilities

Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.

Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.

Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.

6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing

Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.

More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."

Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset.

7. Ignore Market Forecasts

There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.

On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.

In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value (through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.

8. Wait for the Fat Pitch

Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.

Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.

Bottom Line

"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.

Doing More With Less: The Sales-Per-Employee Ratio

Investment analysts use a variety of key ratios, such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and price-earnings ratio (P/E), to gauge a company's well being. One number that doesn't get a lot of attention is the sales-per-employee ratio. While it does have its limitations, this ratio does give investors some sense of a company's productivity and financial health.

What Is the Sales-per-Employee Ratio?

The name indicates how the sales/employee ratio is calculated: a company's annual sales divided by its total employees. Annual sales and employee numbers are easily located in published statements and annual reports.

The sales-per-employee ratio provides a broad indication of how expensive a company is to run. It can be especially insightful when measuring the efficiency of businesses such as banks, retailers, consultants, software companies and media groups. "People businesses" lend themselves to the sales per employee ratio.

Interpreting the ratio is fairly straightforward: companies with higher sales-per-employee figures are generally considered more efficient than those with lower figures. A higher sales-per-employee ratio indicates that the company can operate on low overhead costs, and therefore do more with less employees, which often translates into healthy profits.

Consider the software maker Qualcomm. In 2003, the company generated $690,000 in sales per employee. By comparison, software giant Microsoft generated about $500,000 in sales per employee. This suggests that Qualcomm is making more of its workforce and demonstrates why the stock market consistently awards Qualcomm a higher valuation than other technology stocks.

Compare Apples with Apples

The sales-per-employee ratio is best used to compare companies that are similar. Retailers and other service-oriented companies that employ a lot of people, for instance, will have dramatically different ratios than software firms. For example, Starbucks Coffee is a highly efficient retailer, but because it employs nearly 74,000 full and part-time staff, its sales-per-employee figure of $55,000 seems to pale in comparison to Qualcomm's $690,000 per employee.

Companies that concentrate on selling and distributing products will typically enjoy much higher sales-per-employee figures than firms that manufacture goods. Manufacturing is typically very labor intensive, while sales and marketing activities rely on fewer people to generate the same sales numbers. In manufacturing, each employee can usually assemble only a certain number of products. Increasing production requires more employees. By contrast, marketing and sales activities can increase without necessarily adding staff. Take the sports footwear maker Nike: since making the decision to outsource its manufacturing to other companies, the firm's sales-per-employee ratio has skyrocketed.

Early-stage businesses typically have low sales-per-employee numbers. Companies involved in developing new technology, for example, often have meager sales-per-employee figures in their early years. Sonus Pharmaceuticals, for instance, generated only $610 per employee in 2003. But the firm's sales-per-employee multiple will grow as its lead drug products, which are still in the trial stage, are expected to gain wider sales eventually.

You should also be careful about employee numbers stated in the financial reports. Some companies employ sub-contractors, which are not counted as employees. This kind of discrepancy can put a wrinkle in your analysis and comparison of sales-per-employee figures.

Trends Are Important

Be sure to watch sales-per-employee ratios over several years to get a reliable idea of performance. Don't jump to conclusions without examining trends over time. A jump in sales-per-employee efficiencies can be just a blip. For instance, big job cuts often translate into a temporary ratio boost as remaining employees work harder and take on extra tasks. But research shows such a boost can quickly reverse as workers burn out and work less efficiently.

A steadily rising sales-per-employee ratio can mean a number of things:

• increasingly streamlined organizations;

• recent capital investment that improves efficiency;

• great products that are selling faster than those of competitors.

Also, a company that consistently generates rising sales with a stable or shrinking work force can usually boost profits more rapidly than one that can't make additional sales without adding more workers. An improving sales-per-employee ratio frequently precedes growth in profit margins. A climbing sales-per-employee number could mean that the company is growing but has not hired more employees to handle the added workload.

Again, be careful. If numbers change dramatically, it's worthwhile to take a closer look.

Conclusion

Although you need to be careful when using this ratio, you can tell a lot about a company and its future from its sales-per-employee figures. Investors can get a quick sense of the company's financial health and of how the company fares against its peers. While the ratio doesn't tell the whole story, it certainly helps.

J

Value Analysis

What is Fundamental Analysis?

Fundamental analysis is the analysis, wherein the investment decisions are taken on the basis of the financial strength of the company. There are two approaches to fundamental analysis, viz., E-I-C analysis or the Top Down approach to Fundamental analysis and C-I-E analysis or the Bottom up approach. In the following section, we explain both these approaches.

Economy-Industry-Company Analysis

In the Top down approach, first of all the overall Economy is analyzed to judge the general direction, in which the economy is heading. The direction in which the economy is heading has a bearing on the performance of various industries. Thats why Economy analysis is important. The output of the Economy analysis is a list of industries, which should perform well, given the general trend of the economy and also an idea, whether to invest or not in the given economic conditions.

Measuring a Company's Financial Health

Gaining a true picture of a company's finances means not only scrutinizing the financial statements but also analyzing relationships among various assets and liabilities, thus highlighting trends in a company's performance and changes in its financial strength relative to its competitors.

This section explains how to read a company's financial statements. Measures of value :

Book value is based on historical costs, not current values, but can provide an important measure of the relative value of a company over time. Book value can be figured as assets minus liabilities, or assets minus liabilities and intangible items such as goodwill; either way, the figure that results is the company's net book value. This is contrasted with its market capitalization, or total share price value, which is calculated by multiplying the outstanding shares by their current market price.

You can also compare a company's market value to its book value on a per-share basis. Divide book value by the number of shares outstanding to get book value per share and compare the result to the current stock price to help determine if the company's stock is fairly valued. Most stocks trade above book value because investors believe that the company will grow and the value of its shares will, too. When book value per share is higher than the current share price, a company's stock may be undervalued and a bargain to investors. In fact, the company itself may be a bargain, and hence a takeover target.

Price/earnings ratio (P/E) is the more common yardstick of a company's value. It is the current stock price divided by the earnings per share for the past year. For example, a stock selling for $20 with earnings of $2 per share has a P/E of 10. While there's no set rule as to what's a good P/E, a low P/E is generally considered good because it may mean that the stock price has not risen to reflect its earning power. A high P/E, on the other hand, may reflect an overpriced stock or decreasing earnings. As with all of these ratios, however, it's important to compare a company's ratio to the ratios of other companies in the same industry.

A measure of solvency

Debt-to-equity ratio provides a measure of a company's debt level. It is calculated by dividing total liabilities by shareholders' equity. A ratio of 1-to-2 or lower indicates that a company has relatively little debt. Ratios vary, however, depending on a company's size and its industry, so compare a company's financial ratios with those of its industry peers before drawing conclusions.

Measures of liquidity

Current ratio. Current assets divided by current liabilities yields the current ratio, a measure of a company's liquidity, or its ability to meet current debts. The higher the ratio, the greater the liquidity. As a rule of thumb, a healthy company's current ratio is 2-to-1 or greater.