Thursday, June 2, 2011

Intrinsic Value

What Does Intrinsic Value Mean?

The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Value investors use a variety of analytical techniques in order to estimate the intrinsic value of securities in hopes of finding investments where the true value of the investment exceeds its current market value

For example, value investors that follow fundamental analysis look at both qualitative (business model, governance, target market factors etc.) and quantitative (ratios, financial statement analysis, etc.) aspects of a business to see if the business is currently out of favor with the market and is really worth much more than its current valuation.

What Does Value Investing Mean?

The strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic values. Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying when the price is deflated.

Typically, value investors select stocks with lower-than-average price-to-book or price-to-earnings ratios and/or high dividend yields.

The big problem for value investing is estimating intrinsic value. Remember, there is no "correct" intrinsic value. Two investors can be given the exact same information and place a different value on a company. For this reason, another central concept to value investing is that of "margin of safety". This just means that you buy at a big enough discount to allow some room for error in your estimation of value.

Also keep in mind that the very definition of value investing is subjective. Some value investors only look at present assets/earnings and don't place any value on future growth. Other value investors base strategies completely around the estimation of future growth and cash flows. Despite the different methodologies, it all comes back to trying to buy something for less than it is worth.

What Does Price-Earnings Ratio - P/E Ratio Mean?

A valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings.

Calculated as:

Market Value per Share/ Earnings per Share (EPS)

For example, if a company is currently trading at $43 a share and earnings over the last 12 months were $1.95 per share, the P/E ratio for the stock would be 22.05 ($43/$1.95).

EPS is usually from the last four quarters (trailing P/E), but sometimes it can be taken from the estimates of earnings expected in the next four quarters (projected or forward P/E). A third variation uses the sum of the last two actual quarters and the estimates of the next two quarters.
Also sometimes known as "price multiple" or "earnings multiple".

In general, a high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower P/E. However, the P/E ratio doesn't tell us the whole story by itself. It's usually more useful to compare the P/E ratios of one company to other companies in the same industry, to the market in general or against the company's own historical P/E. It would not be useful for investors using the P/E ratio as a basis for their investment to compare the P/E of a technology company (high P/E) to a utility company (low P/E) as each industry has much different growth prospects.
The P/E is sometimes referred to as the "multiple", because it shows how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. If a company were currently trading at a multiple (P/E) of 20, the interpretation is that an investor is willing to pay $20 for $1 of current earnings.

It is important that investors note an important problem that arises with the P/E measure, and to avoid basing a decision on this measure alone. The denominator (earnings) is based on an accounting measure of earnings that is susceptible to forms of manipulation, making the quality of the P/E only as good as the quality of the underlying earnings number.

What Does Price-To-Book Ratio - P/B Ratio Mean?

A ratio used to compare a stock's market value to its book value. It is calculated by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter's book value per share.

Also known as the "price-equity ratio".

Calculated as:

Price-To-Book Ratio (P/B Ratio)


A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. However, it could also mean that something is fundamentally wrong with the company. As with most ratios, be aware that this varies by industry.

This ratio also gives some idea of whether you're paying too much for what would be left if the company went bankrupt immediately.


Warren Buffett: How He Does It

Did you know that a $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, the year Warren Buffett took control of it, would grow to be worth nearly $30 million by 2005? By comparison, $10,000 in the S&P 500 would have grown to only about $500,000. Whether you like him or not, Buffett's investment strategy is arguably the most successful ever. With a sustained compound return this high for this long, it's no wonder Buffett's legend has swelled to mythical proportions. But how the heck did he do it? In this article, we'll introduce you to some of the most important tenets of Buffett's investment philosophy.

Buffett's Philosophy

Warren Buffett descends from the Benjamin Graham school of value investing. Value investors look for securities with prices that are unjustifiably low based on their intrinsic worth. When discussing stocks, determining intrinsic value can be a bit tricky as there is no universally accepted way to obtain this figure. Most often intrinsic worth is estimated by analyzing a company's fundamentals. Like bargain hunters, value investors seek products that are beneficial and of high quality but underpriced. In other words, the value investor searches for stocks that he or she believes are undervalued by the market. Like the bargain hunter, the value investor tries to find those items that are valuable but not recognized as such by the majority of other buyers.

Warren Buffett takes this value investing approach to another level. Many value investors aren't supporters of the efficient market hypothesis, but they do trust that the market will eventually start to favor those quality stocks that were, for a time, undervalued. Buffett, however, doesn't think in these terms. He isn't concerned with the supply and demand intricacies of the stock market. In fact, he's not really concerned with the activities of the stock market at all. This is the implication this paraphrase of his famous quote : "In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine.

He chooses stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, Buffett seeks not capital gainbut ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business.

Buffett's Methodology

Here we look at how Buffett finds low-priced value by asking himself some questions when he evaluates the relationship between a stock's level of excellence and its price. Keep in mind that these are not the only things he analyzes but rather a brief summary of what Buffett looks for:

1. Has the company consistently performed well?

Sometimes return on equity (ROE) is referred to as "stockholder's return on investment". It reveals the rate at which shareholders are earning income on their shares. Buffett always looks at ROE to see whether or not a company has consistently performed well in comparison to other companies in the same industry. ROE is calculated as follows:

= Net Income / Shareholder's Equity

Looking at the ROE in just the last year isn't enough. The investor should view the ROE from the past five to 10 years to get a good idea of historical performance.

2. Has the company avoided excess debt?

The debt/equity ratio is another key characteristic Buffett considers carefully. Buffett prefers to see a small amount of debt so that earnings growth is being generated from shareholders' equity as opposed to borrowed money. The debt/equity ratio is calculated as follows:

= Total Liabilities / Shareholders' Equity

This ratio shows the proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets, and the higher the ratio, the more debt - rather than equity - is financing the company. A high level of debt compared to equity can result in volatile earnings and large interest expenses. For a more stringent test, investors sometimes use only long-term debt instead of total liabilities in the calculation above.

3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing?

The profitability of a company depends not only on having a good profit margin but also on consistently increasing this profit margin. This margin is calculated by dividing net income bynet sales. To get a good indication of historical profit margins, investors should look back at least five years. A high profit margin indicates the company is executing its business well, but increasing margins means management has been extremely efficient and successful at controlling expenses.

4. How long has the company been public?

Buffett typically considers only companies that have been around for at least 10 years. As a result, most of the technology companies that have had their initial public offerings (IPOs) in the past decade wouldn't get on Buffett's radar (not to mention the fact that Buffett will invest only in a business that he fully understands, and he admittedly does not understand what a lot of today's technology companies actually do). It makes sense that one of Buffet's criteria is longevity: value investing means looking at companies that have stood the test of time but are currently undervalued.

Never underestimate the value of historical performance, which demonstrates the company's ability (or inability) to increase shareholder value. Do keep in mind, however, that the past performance of a stock does not guarantee future performance - the job of the value investor is to determine how well the company can perform as well as it did in the past. Determining this is inherently tricky, but evidently Buffett is very good at it.

5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity?

Initially you might think of this question as a radical approach to narrowing down a company. Buffett, however, sees this question as an important one. He tends to shy away (but not always) from companies whose products are indistinguishable from those of competitors, and those that rely solely on a commodity such as oil and gas. If the company does not offer anything different than another firm within the same industry, Buffett sees little that sets the company apart. Any characteristic that is hard to replicate is what Buffett calls a company'seconomic moat, or competitive advantage. The wider the moat, the tougher it is for a competitor to gain market share.

6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value?

This is the kicker. Finding companies that meet the other five criteria is one thing, but determining whether they are undervalued is the most difficult part of value investing, and Buffett's most important skill. To check this, an investor must determine the intrinsic value of a company by analyzing a number of business fundamentals, including earnings, revenues and assets. And a company's intrinsic value is usually higher (and more complicated) than its liquidation value - what a company would be worth if it were broken up and sold today. The liquidation value doesn't include intangibles such as the value of a brand name, which is not directly stated on the financial statements.

Once Buffett determines the intrinsic value of the company as a whole, he compares it to its current market capitalization - the current total worth (price). If his measurement of intrinsic value is at least 25% higher than the company's market capitalization, Buffett sees the company as one that has value. Sounds easy, doesn't it? Well, Buffett's success, however, depends on his unmatched skill in accurately determining this intrinsic value. While we can outline some of his criteria, we have no way of knowing exactly how he gained such precise mastery of calculating value.

Conclusion

As you have probably noticed, Buffett's investing style, like the shopping style of a bargain hunter, reflects a practical, down-to-earth attitude. Buffett maintains this attitude in other areas of his life: he doesn't live in a huge house, he doesn't collect cars and he doesn't take a limousine to work. The value-investing style is not without its critics, but whether you support Buffett or not, the proof is in the pudding. As of 2004, he holds the title of the second-richest man in the world, with a net worth of more $40 billion (Forbes 2004). Do note that the most difficult thing for any value investor, including Buffett, is in accurately determining a company's intrinsic value.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Stock Basics Tutorial

Table Of Contents

1) Stocks Basics: Introduction
2) Stocks Basics: What Are Stocks?
3) Stocks Basics: Different Types Of Stocks
4) Stocks Basics: How Stocks Trade
5) Stocks Basics: What Causes Stock Prices To Change?
6) Stocks Basics: Buying Stocks
7) Stocks Basics: How To Read A Stock Table/Quote
8) Stocks Basics: The Bulls, The Bears And The Farm
9) Stocks Basics: Conclusion

Introduction

Wouldn't you love to be a business owner without ever having to show up at
work? Imagine if you could sit back, watch your company grow, and collect the
dividend checks as the money rolls in! This situation might sound like a pipe
dream, but it's closer to reality than you might think.

As you've probably guessed, we're talking about owning stocks. This fabulous
category of financial instruments is, without a doubt, one of the greatest tools
ever invented for building wealth. Stocks are a part, if not the cornerstone, of
nearly any investment portfolio. When you start on your road to financial
freedom, you need to have a solid understanding of stocks and how they trade
on the stock market.

Over the last few decades, the average person's interest in the stock market has
grown exponentially. What was once a toy of the rich has now turned into the
vehicle of choice for growing wealth. This demand coupled with advances in
trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody
can own stocks.

Despite their popularity, however, most people don't fully understand stocks.
Much is learned from conversations around the water cooler with others who also
don't know what they're talking about. Chances are you've already heard people
say things like, "Bob's cousin made a killing in XYZ company, and now he's got
another hot tip..." or "Watch out with stocks--you can lose your shirt in a matter of
days!" So much of this misinformation is based on a get-rich-quick mentality,
which was especially prevalent during the amazing dotcom market in the late
'90s. People thought that stocks were the magic answer to instant wealth with no
risk. The ensuing dotcom crash proved that this is not the case. Stocks can (and
do) create massive amounts of wealth, but they aren't without risks. The only
solution to this is education. The key to protecting yourself in the stock market is
to understand where you are putting your money.

It is for this reason that we've created this tutorial: to provide the foundation you
need to make investment decisions yourself. We'll start by explaining what a
stock is and the different types of stock, and then we'll talk about how they are
traded, what causes prices to change, how you buy stocks and much more.

What Are Stocks?

The Definition of a Stock

Plain and simple, stock is a share in the ownership of a company. Stock
represents a claim on the company's assets and earnings. As you acquire more
stock, your ownership stake in the company becomes greater. Whether you say
shares, equity, or stock, it all means the same thing.

Being an Owner

Holding a company's stock means that you are one of the many owners
(shareholders) of a company and, as such, you have a claim (albeit usually very
small) to everything the company owns. Yes, this means that technically you own
a tiny sliver of every piece of furniture, every trademark, and every contract of the
company. As an owner, you are entitled to your share of the company's earnings
as well as any voting rights attached to the stock.

A stock is represented by a stock certificate. This is a fancy piece of paper that is
proof of your ownership. In today's computer age, you won't actually get to see this
document because your brokerage keeps these records electronically, which is also
known as holding shares "in street name". This is done to make the shares easier to
trade. In the past, when a person wanted to sell his or her shares, that person physically
took the certificates down to the brokerage. Now, trading with a click of the mouse
or a phone call makes life easier for everybody.

Being a shareholder of a public company does not mean you have a say in the
day-to-day running of the business. Instead, one vote per share to elect the board
of directors at annual meetings is the extent to which you have a say in the company.
For instance, being a Microsoft shareholder doesn't mean you can call up Bill Gates
and tell him how you think the company should be run. In the same line of thinking,
being a shareholder of Anheuser Busch doesn't mean you can walk into the factory
and grab a free case of Bud Light!

The management of the company is supposed to increase the value of the firm
for shareholders. If this doesn't happen, the shareholders can vote to have the
management removed, at least in theory. In reality, individual investors like you
and I don't own enough shares to have a material influence on the company. It's
really the big boys like large institutional investors and billionaire entrepreneurs
who make the decisions.

For ordinary shareholders, not being able to manage the company isn't such a
big deal. After all, the idea is that you don't want to have to work to make money,
right? The importance of being a shareholder is that you are entitled to a portion
of the company’s profits and have a claim on assets. Profits are sometimes paid
out in the form of dividends. The more shares you own, the larger the portion of
the profits you get. Your claim on assets is only relevant if a company goes
bankrupt. In case of liquidation, you'll receive what's left after all the creditors
have been paid. This last point is worth repeating: the importance of stock
ownership is your claim on assets and earnings. Without this, the stock
wouldn't be worth the paper it's printed on.

Another extremely important feature of stock is its limited liability, which means
that, as an owner of a stock, you are not personally liable if the company is not
able to pay its debts. Other companies such as partnerships are set up so that if
the partnership goes bankrupt the creditors can come after the partners
(shareholders) personally and sell off their house, car, furniture, etc. Owning
stock means that, no matter what, the maximum value you can lose is the value
of your investment. Even if a company of which you are a shareholder goes
bankrupt, you can never lose your personal assets.

Debt vs. Equity

Why does a company issue stock? Why would the founders share the profits with
thousands of people when they could keep profits to themselves? The reason is
that at some point every company needs to raise money. To do this, companies
can either borrow it from somebody or raise it by selling part of the company,
which is known as issuing stock. A company can borrow by taking a loan from a
bank or by issuing bonds. Both methods fit under the umbrella of debt financing.
On the other hand, issuing stock is called equity financing. Issuing stock is
advantageous for the company because it does not require the company to pay
back the money or make interest payments along the way. All that the
shareholders get in return for their money is the hope that the shares will
someday be worth more than what they paid for them. The first sale of a stock,
which is issued by the private company itself, is called the initial public offering
(IPO).

It is important that you understand the distinction between a company financing
through debt and financing through equity. When you buy a debt investment such
as a bond, you are guaranteed the return of your money (the principal) along with
promised interest payments. This isn't the case with an equity investment. By
becoming an owner, you assume the risk of the company not being successful -
just as a small business owner isn't guaranteed a return, neither is a shareholder.
As an owner, your claim on assets is less than that of creditors. This means that if
a company goes bankrupt and liquidates, you, as a shareholder, don't get any
money until the banks and bondholders have been paid out; we call
this absolute priority. Shareholders earn a lot if a company is successful, but they
also stand to lose their entire investment if the company isn't successful.

Risk

It must be emphasized that there are no guarantees when it comes to individual
stocks. Some companies pay out dividends, but many others do not. And there is
no obligation to pay out dividends even for those firms that have traditionally
given them. Without dividends, an investor can make money on a stock only
through its appreciation in the open market. On the downside, any stock may go
bankrupt, in which case your investment is worth nothing.

Although risk might sound all negative, there is also a bright side. Taking on
greater risk demands a greater return on your investment. This is the reason why
stocks have historically outperformed other investments such as bonds or
savings accounts. Over the long term, an investment in stocks has historically
had an average return of around 10-12%.

Different Types Of Stocks

There are two main types of stocks: common stock and preferred stock.

Common Stock

Common stock is, well, common. When people talk about stocks they are usually
referring to this type. In fact, the majority of stock is issued is in this form. We
basically went over features of common stock in the last section. Common
shares represent ownership in a company and a claim (dividends) on a portion of
profits. Investors get one vote per share to elect the board members, who
oversee the major decisions made by management.

Over the long term, common stock, by means of capital growth, yields higher
returns than almost every other investment. This higher return comes at a cost
since common stocks entail the most risk. If a company goes bankrupt and
liquidates, the common shareholders will not receive money until the creditors,
bondholders and preferred shareholders are paid.

Preferred Stock

Preferred stock represents some degree of ownership in a company but usually
doesn't come with the same voting rights. (This may vary depending on the
company.) With preferred shares, investors are usually guaranteed a fixed
dividend forever. This is different than common stock, which has variable
dividends that are never guaranteed. Another advantage is that in the event of
liquidation, preferred shareholders are paid off before the common shareholder
(but still after debt holders). Preferred stock may also be callable, meaning that
the company has the option to purchase the shares from shareholders at anytime
for any reason (usually for a premium).

Some people consider preferred stock to be more like debt than equity. A good
way to think of these kinds of shares is to see them as being in between bonds
and common shares.

Different Classes of Stock

Common and preferred are the two main forms of stock; however, it's also
possible for companies to customize different classes of stock in any way they
want. The most common reason for this is the company wanting the voting power
to remain with a certain group; therefore, different classes of shares are given
different voting rights. For example, one class of shares would be held by a
select group who are given ten votes per share while a second class would be
issued to the majority of investors who are given one vote per share.
When there is more than one class of stock, the classes are traditionally
designated as Class A and Class B. Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRK), has two
classes of stock. The different forms are represented by placing the letter behind
the ticker symbol in a form like this: "BRKa, BRKb" or "BRK.A, BRK.B".

How Stocks Trade

Most stocks are traded on exchanges, which are places where buyers and
sellers meet and decide on a price. Some exchanges are physical locations
where transactions are carried out on a trading floor. You've probably seen
pictures of a trading floor, in which traders are wildly throwing their arms up,
waving, yelling, and signaling to each other. The other type of exchange is
virtual, composed of a network of computers where trades are made
electronically.

The purpose of a stock market is to facilitate the exchange of securities between
buyers and sellers, reducing the risks of investing. Just imagine how difficult it
would be to sell shares if you had to call around the neighborhood trying to find a
buyer. Really, a stock market is nothing more than a super-sophisticated farmers'
market linking buyers and sellers.

Before we go on, we should distinguish between the primary market and the
secondary market. The primary market is where securities are created (by means
of an IPO) while, in the secondary market, investors trade previously-issued
securities without the involvement of the issuing-companies. The secondary
market is what people are referring to when they talk about the stock market. It is
important to understand that the trading of a company's stock does not directly
involve that company.

The New York Stock Exchange

The most prestigious exchange in the world is the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE). The "Big Board" was founded over 200 years ago in 1792 with the
signing of the Buttonwood Agreement by 24 New York City stockbrokers and
merchants. Currently the NYSE, with stocks like General Electric, McDonald's,
Citigroup, Coca-Cola, Gillette and Wal-mart, is the market of choice for the
largest companies in America.

The NYSE is the first type of exchange (as we referred to
above), where much of the trading is done face-to-face on
a trading floor. This is also referred to as a listed exchange.
Orders come in through brokerage firms that are members
of the exchange and flow down to floor brokers who go to a
specific spot on the floor where the stock trades. At this
location, known as the trading post, there is a specific
person known as the specialist whose job is to match
buyers and sellers. Prices are determined using an auction
method: the current price is the highest amount any buyer
is willing to pay and the lowest price at which someone is
willing to sell. Once a trade has been made, the details are
sent back to the brokerage firm, who then notifies the
investor who placed the order. Although there is human contact in this process,
don't think that the NYSE is still in the stone age: computers play a huge role in
the process.

The Nasdaq

The second type of exchange is the virtual sort called an over-the-counter (OTC)
market, of which the Nasdaq is the most popular. These markets have no central
location or floor brokers whatsoever. Trading is done through a computer and
telecommunications network of dealers. It used to be that the largest companies
were listed only on the NYSE while all other second tier stocks traded on the
other exchanges. The tech boom of the late '90s changed all this; now the
Nasdaq is home to several big technology companies such as Microsoft,
Cisco,Intel, Dell and Oracle. This has resulted in the Nasdaq
becoming a serious competitor to the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq brokerages act as market makers for various
stocks. A market maker provides continuous bid and ask
prices within a prescribed percentage spread for shares for
which they are designated to make a market. They may
match up buyers and sellers directly but usually they will
maintain an inventory of shares to meet demands of
investors.

Other Exchanges

The third largest exchange in the U.S. is the American Stock
Exchange (AMEX). The AMEX used to be an alternative to
the NYSE, but that role has since been filled by the Nasdaq. In fact, the National
Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), which is the parent of Nasdaq, bought
the AMEX in 1998. Almost all trading now on the AMEX is in small-cap stocks
and derivatives.

There are many stock exchanges located in just about every country around the
world. American markets are undoubtedly the largest, but they still represent only
a fraction of total investment around the globe. The two other main financial hubs
are London, home of the London Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong, home of the
Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The last place worth mentioning is the over-the counter
bulletin board (OTCBB). The Nasdaq is an over-the-counter market, but
the term commonly refers to small public companies that don’t meet the listing
requirements of any of the regulated markets, including the Nasdaq. The OTCBB
is home to penny stocks because there is little to no regulation. This makes
investing in an OTCBB stock very risky.

What Causes Stock Prices To Change?

Stock prices change every day as a result of market forces. By this we mean that
share prices change because of supply and demand. If more people want to buy
a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if
more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply
than demand, and the price would fall.

Understanding supply and demand is easy. What is difficult to comprehend is
what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. This comes
down to figuring out what news is positive for a company and what news is
negative. There are many answers to this problem and just about any investor
you ask has their own ideas and strategies.

That being said, the principal theory is that the price movement of a stock
indicates what investors feel a company is worth. Don't equate a company's
value with the stock price. The value of a company is its market capitalization,
which is the stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. For
example, a company that trades at $100 per share and has 1 million shares
outstanding has a lesser value than a company that trades at $50 that has 5
million shares outstanding ($100 x 1 million = $100 million while $50 x 5 million =
$250 million). To further complicate things, the price of a stock doesn't only
reflect a company's current value, it also reflects the growth that investors expect
in the future.

The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings.
Earnings are the profit a company makes, and in the long run no company can
survive without them. It makes sense when you think about it. If a company never
makes money, it isn't going to stay in business. Public companies are required to
report their earnings four times a year (once each quarter). Wall Street watches
with rabid attention at these times, which are referred to as earnings seasons.
The reason behind this is that analysts base their future value of a company on
their earnings projection. If a company's results surprise (are better than
expected), the price jumps up. If a company's results disappoint (are worse than
expected), then the price will fall.

Of course, it's not just earnings that can change the sentiment towards a stock
(which, in turn, changes its price). It would be a rather simple world if this were
the case! During the dotcom bubble, for example, dozens of internet companies
rose to have market capitalizations in the billions of dollars without ever making
even the smallest profit. As we all know, these valuations did not hold, and most
internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs. Still, the
fact that prices did move that much demonstrates that there are factors other
than current earnings that influence stocks. Investors have developed literally
hundreds of these variables, ratios and indicators. Some you may have already
heard of, such as the price/earnings ratio, while others are extremely complicated
and obscure with names like Chaikin oscillator or moving average convergence
divergence.

So, why do stock prices change? The best answer is that nobody really knows
for sure. Some believe that it isn't possible to predict how stock prices will
change, while others think that by drawing charts and looking at past price
movements, you can determine when to buy and sell. The only thing we do know
is that stocks are volatile and can change in price extremely rapidly.
The important things to grasp about this subject are the following:
1. At the most fundamental level, supply and demand in the market determines
stock price.

2. Price times the number of shares outstanding (market capitalization) is the
value of a company. Comparing just the share price of two companies is
meaningless.

3. Theoretically, earnings are what affect investors' valuation of a company, but
there are other indicators that investors use to predict stock price. Remember, it
is investors' sentiments, attitudes and expectations that ultimately affect stock
prices.

4. There are many theories that try to explain the way stock prices move the way
they do. Unfortunately, there is no one theory that can explain everything.

Buying Stocks

You've now learned what a stock is and a little bit about the principles behind the
stock market, but how do you actually go about buying stocks? Thankfully, you
don't have to go down into the trading pit yelling and screaming your order. There
are two main ways to purchase stock:

1. Using a Brokerage

The most common method to buy stocks is to use a brokerage. Brokerages
come in two different flavors. Full-service brokerages offer you (supposedly)
expert advice and can manage your account; they also charge a lot. Discount
brokerages offer little in the way of personal attention but are much cheaper.
At one time, only the wealthy could afford a broker since only the expensive, full service
brokers were available. With the internet came the explosion of online
discount brokers. Thanks to them nearly anybody can now afford to invest in the
market.

2. DRIPs & DIPs

Dividend reinvestment plans (DRIPs) and direct investment plans (DIPs) are
plans by which individual companies, for a minimal cost, allow shareholders to
purchase stock directly from the company. Drips are a great way to invest small
amounts of money at regular intervals.

How to Read a Stock Table/Quote

52-Week Hi and Low - These are the highest and lowest prices
at which a stock has traded over the previous 52 weeks (one year). This typically
does not include the previous day's trading.

Company Name & Type of Stock - This column lists the name of
the company. If there are no special symbols or letters following the name, it is
common stock. Different symbols imply different classes of shares. For example,
"pf" means the shares are preferred stock.

Ticker Symbol - This is the unique alphabetic name which identifies
the stock. If you watch financial TV, you have seen the ticker tape move across
the screen, quoting the latest prices alongside this symbol. If you are looking for
stock quotes online, you always search for a company by the ticker symbol. If
you don't know what a particular company's ticker is you can search for it at:
http://finance.yahoo.com/l.

Dividend Per Share - This indicates the annual dividend payment
per share. If this space is blank, the company does not currently pay out
dividends.

Dividend Yield – This states the percentage return on the dividend,
calculated as annual dividends per share divided by price per share.

Price/Earnings Ratio - This is calculated by dividing the current
stock price by earnings per share from the last four quarters.

Trading Volume - This figure shows the total number of shares
traded for the day, listed in hundreds. To get the actual number traded, add "00"
to the end of the number listed.

Day High & Low - This indicates the price range at which the
stock has traded at throughout the day. In other words, these are the maximum
and the minimum prices that people have paid for the stock.

Close - The close is the last trading price recorded when the market
closed on the day. If the closing price is up or down more than 5% than the
previous day's close, the entire listing for that stock is bold-faced. Keep in mind,
you are not guaranteed to get this price if you buy the stock the next day
because the price is constantly changing (even after the exchange is closed for
the day). The close is merely an indicator of past performance and except in
extreme circumstances serves as a ballpark of what you should expect to pay.

Net Change - This is the dollar value change in the stock price from
the previous day's closing price. When you hear about a stock being "up for the
day," it means the net change was positive.

Quotes on the Internet

Nowadays, it's far more convenient for most to get stock quotes off the Internet.
This method is superior because most sites update throughout the day and give
you more information, news, charting, research, etc.

To get quotes, simply enter the ticker symbol into the quote box of any major
financial site like Yahoo Finance, CBS Marketwatch, or MSN Moneycentral. The
example below shows a quote for Microsoft (MSFT) from Yahoo Finance.

Interpreting the data is exactly the same as with the newspaper.

The Bulls, The Bears And The Farm On Wall Street, the bulls and bears are in a
constant struggle. If you haven't heard of these terms already, you undoubtedly
will as you begin to invest.

The Bulls

A bull market is when everything in the economy is great, people are finding
jobs, gross domestic product (GDP) is growing, and stocks are rising. Things are
just plain rosy! Picking stocks during a bull market is easier because everything
is going up. Bull markets cannot last forever though, and sometimes they can
lead to dangerous situations if stocks become overvalued. If a person is
optimistic and believes that stocks will go up, he or she is called a "bull" and is
said to have a "bullish outlook".

The Bears

A bear market is when the economy is bad, recession is looming and stock
prices are falling. Bear markets make it tough for investors to pick profitable
stocks. One solution to this is to make money when stocks are falling using a
technique called short selling. Another strategy is to wait on the sidelines until
you feel that the bear market is nearing its end, only starting to buy in anticipation
of a bull market. If a person is pessimistic, believing that stocks are going to drop,
he or she is called a "bear" and said to have a "bearish outlook".

The Other Animals on the Farm - Chickens and Pigs

Chickens are afraid to lose anything. Their fear overrides their need to make
profits and so they turn only to money-market securities or get out of the markets
entirely. While it's true that you should never invest in something over which you
lose sleep, you are also guaranteed never to see any return if you avoid the
market completely and never take any risk,

Pigs are high-risk investors looking for the one big score in a short period of time.
Pigs buy on hot tips and invest in companies without doing their due diligence.
They get impatient, greedy, and emotional about their investments, and they are
drawn to high-risk securities without putting in the proper time or money to learn
about these investment vehicles. Professional traders love the pigs, as it's often
from their losses that the bulls and bears reap their profits.

What Type of Investor Will You Be?

There are plenty of different investment styles and strategies out there. Even
though the bulls and bears are constantly at odds, they can both make money
with the changing cycles in the market. Even the chickens see some returns,
though not a lot. The one loser in this picture is the pig.

Make sure you don't get into the market before you are ready. Be conservative
and never invest in anything you do not understand. Before you jump in without
the right knowledge, think about this old stock market saying:
"Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs just get slaughtered!"

Conclusion

Let's recap what we've learned in this tutorial:

 Stock means ownership. As an owner, you have a claim on the assets and
earnings of a company as well as voting rights with your shares.

 Stock is equity, bonds are debt. Bondholders are guaranteed a return on
their investment and have a higher claim than shareholders. This is
generally why stocks are considered riskier investments and require a
higher rate of return.

 You can lose all of your investment with stocks. The flip-side of this is you
can make a lot of money if you invest in the right company.

 The two main types of stock are common and preferred. It is also possible
for a company to create different classes of stock.

 Stock markets are places where buyers and sellers of stock meet to trade.
The NYSE and the Nasdaq are the most important exchanges in the
United States.

 Stock prices change according to supply and demand. There are many
factors influencing prices, the most important of which is earnings.

 There is no consensus as to why stock prices move the way they do.

 To buy stocks you can either use a brokerage or a dividend reinvestment
plan (DRIP).

 Stock tables/quotes actually aren't that hard to read once you know what
everything stands for!

 Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered!

P/E Ratio Tutorial

Table Of Contents
1) P/E Ratio: Introduction
2) P/E Ratio: What Is It?
3) P/E Ratio: Using The P/E Ratio
4) P/E Ratio: Problems With The P/E
5) P/E Ratio: It's Not A Crystal Ball
6) P/E Ratio: Conclusion

Introduction

Chances are you've heard the term price/earnings ratio (P/E ratio) used before.
When it comes to valuing stocks, the price/earnings ratio is one of the oldest and
most frequently used metrics.

Although a simple indicator to calculate, the P/E is actually quite difficult to
interpret. It can be extremely informative in some situations, while at other times
it is next to meaningless. As a result, investors often misuse this term and place
more value in the P/E than is warranted.

In this tutorial, we'll introduce you to the P/E ratio and discuss how it can be used
in security analysis and, perhaps more importantly, how it should not be used.
If you don't have a solid understanding of stocks and how they trade on the stock
market, we also suggest that you check out our Stock Basics tutorial

What Is It?

P/E is short for the ratio of a company's share price to its per-share earnings. As
the name implies, to calculate the P/E, you simply take the current stock price of
a company and divide by its earnings per share

P/E Ratio =
Market Value per Share /Earnings per Share (EPS)

Most of the time, the P/E is calculated using EPS from the last four quarters. This
is also known as the trailing P/E. However, occasionally the EPS figure comes
from estimated earnings expected over the next four quarters. This is known as
the leading or projected P/E. A third variation that is also sometimes seen uses
the EPS of the past two quarters and estimates of the next two quarters.

There isn't a huge difference between these variations. But it is important to
realize that in the first calculation, you are using actual historical data. The other
two calculations are based on analyst estimates that are not always perfect or
precise.

Companies that aren't profitable, and consequently have a negative EPS, pose a
challenge when it comes to calculating their P/E. Opinions vary on how to deal
with this. Some say there is a negative P/E, others give a P/E of 0, while most
just say the P/E doesn't exist.

Historically, the average P/E ratio in the market has been around 15-25. This
fluctuates significantly depending on economic conditions. The P/E can also vary
widely between different companies and industries.

Using The P/E Ratio

Theoretically, a stock's P/E tells us how much investors are willing to pay per
dollar of earnings. For this reason it's also called the "multiple" of a stock. In other
words, a P/E ratio of 20 suggests that investors in the stock are willing to pay $20
for every $1 of earnings that the company generates. However, this is a far too
simplistic way of viewing the P/E because it fails to take into account the
company's growth prospects.

Growth of Earnings

Although the EPS figure in the P/E is usually based on earnings from the last four
quarters, the P/E is more than a measure of a company's past performance. It
also takes into account market expectations for a company's growth. Remember,
stock prices reflect what investors think a company will be worth. Future growth
is already accounted for in the stock price. As a result, a better way of
interpreting the P/E ratio is as a reflection of the market's optimism concerning a
company's growth prospects.

If a company has a P/E higher than the market or industry average, this means
that the market is expecting big things over the next few months or years.
company with a high P/E ratio will eventually have to live up to the high rating by
substantially increasing its earnings, or the stock price will need to drop.

A good example is Microsoft. Several years ago, when it was growing by leaps
and bounds, and its P/E ratio was over 100. Today, Microsoft is one of the
largest companies in the world, so its revenues and earnings can't maintain the
same growth as before. As a result, its P/E had dropped to 43 by June 2002.
This reduction in the P/E ratio is a common occurrence as high-growth startups
solidify their reputations and turn into blue chips.

Cheap or Expensive?

The P/E ratio is a much better indicator of the value of a stock than the market
price alone. For example, all things being equal, a $10 stock with a P/E of 75 is
much more "expensive" than a $100 stock with a P/E of 20. That being said,
there are limits to this form of analysis - you can't just compare the P/Es of two
different companies to determine which is a better value.

It's difficult to determine whether a particular P/E is high or low without taking into
account two main factors:

1. Company growth rates - How fast has the company been growing in the
past, and are these rates expected to increase, or at least continue, in the future?
Something isn't right if a company has only grown at 5% in the past and still has
a stratospheric P/E. If projected growth rates don't justify the P/E, then a stock
might be overpriced. In this situation, all you have to do is calculate the P/E using
projected EPS.

2. Industry - It is only useful to compare companies if they are in the same
industry. For example, utilities typically have low multiples because they are low
growth, stable industries. In contrast, the technology industry is characterized by
phenomenal growth rates and constant change. Comparing a tech company to a
utility is useless. You should only compare high-growth companies to others in
the same industry, or to the industry average. You can find P/E ratios by industry
on Yahoo! Finance.

Problems With The P/E

So far we've learned that in the right circumstances, the P/E ratio can help us
determine whether a company is over- or under-valued. But P/E analysis is only
valid in certain circumstances and it has its pitfalls. Some factors that can
undermine the usefulness of the P/E ratio include:

Accounting

Earnings is an accounting figure that includes non-cash items. Furthermore, the
guidelines for determining earnings are governed by accounting rules (Generally
Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)) that change over time and are different
in each country. To complicate matters, EPS can be twisted, prodded and
squeezed into various numbers depending on how you do the books. The result
is that we often don't know whether we are comparing the same figures, or
apples to oranges.

Inflation

In times of high inflation, inventory and depreciation costs tend to be understated
because the replacement costs of goods and equipment rise with the general
level of prices. Thus, P/E ratios tend to be lower during times of high inflation
because the market sees earnings as artificially distorted upwards. As with all
ratios, it's more valuable to look at the P/E over time in order to determine the
trend. Inflation makes this difficult, as past information is less useful today.

Many Interpretations

A low P/E ratio does not necessarily mean that a company is undervalued.
Rather, it could mean that the market believes the company is headed for trouble
in the near future. Stocks that go down usually do so for a reason. It may be that
a company has warned that earnings will come in lower than expected. This
wouldn't be reflected in a trailing P/E ratio until earnings are actually released,
during which time the company might look undervalued.

It's Not A Crystal Ball

What goes up ... well, sometimes it stays up for an awfully long time.
A common mistake among beginning investors is the short selling of stocks
because they have a high P/E ratio. If you aren't familiar with short selling, it's an
investing technique by which an investor can make money when a shorted
security falls in value.

First of all, we believe that novice investors shouldn't be shorting. Secondly, you
can get into a lot of trouble by valuing stocks using only simple indicators such as
the P/E ratio. Although a high P/E ratio could mean that a stock is overvalued,
there is no guarantee that it will come back down anytime soon. On the flip side,
even if a stock is undervalued, it could take years for the market to value it in the
proper way.

Security analysis requires a great deal more than understanding a few ratios.
While the P/E is one part of the puzzle, it's definitely not a crystal ball.

Conclusion

What have we learned about the P/E ratio? Although the P/E often doesn't tell us
much, it can be useful to compare the P/E of one company to another in the
same industry, to the market in general, or to the company's own historical P/E
ratios.

Some points to remember:

 The P/E ratio is the current stock price of a company divided by
its earnings per share (EPS).
 Variations exist using trailing EPS, forward EPS, or an average of the two.
 Historically, the average P/E ratio in the market has been around 15-25.
 Theoretically, a stock's P/E tells us how much investors are willing to pay
per dollar of earnings.
 A better interpretation of the P/E ratio is to see it as a reflection of the
market's optimism concerning a firm's growth prospects.
 The P/E ratio is a much better indicator of a stock's value than the market
price alone.
 In general, it's difficult to say whether a particular P/E is high or low
without taking into account growth rates and the industry.
 Changes in accounting rules as well as differing EPS calculations can
make analysis difficult.
 P/E ratios are generally lower during times of high inflation.
 There are many explanations as to why a company has a low P/E.
 Don't base any buy or sell decision on the multiple alone.

SUPERINVESTOR QUOTES

SUPERINVESTOR QUOTES

In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time – none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads – at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.Charlie Munger

How do you value gold

Warren Buffett commented: “Absent the total destruction of paper money, gold is a terrible investment.” He mentioned that people think that gold is a good way to hedge, but he challenged that belief and said that the best protection in an environment like today is to retain enhancing purchasing power. Gold is an instrument that fails to really do this, has “zero utility”and only “mystique.”




Sunday, May 29, 2011

Risk Reward Ragas

Risk Reward Ragas


Whenever we talk about investments, there is always some risk associated with all of them. Risk is the most dreaded word in all the financial markets across the globe. Any person, who is operating in the financial markets, in whatever capacity, has to face risk. So the question in most minds is, what exactly this RISK is? What does it mean?


In general terms, risk means any deviation from expectations. In Financial parlance, risk means any deviation from the expected returns. More specifically, the probability that the returns from any asset will differ from the expected yields is the risk inherent in that asset. We all face risk in our lives in one way or the other. So lets have an understanding of the risk


Risk inherent in equity investments


Equity investment is the most risky investment in all the financial markets. So one needs to have an understanding of risks associated with equity investments. Broadly, there are two types of risks associated with equity investments, viz., systematic risk and unsystematic risk. Lets have an understanding of these two types of risks.


Systematic risk: or the market risk, as it is called, this is the variation in the return on any scrip due to market movements. For example, suppose the Government announces a corporate tax cut or rise across the board, it is going to effect all the stocks in the market in the same way. This is the systematic risk of scrip, which exists because of market movements.


There is nothing much one can do about systematic risk of a security because it arises due to some extraneous variables. But there still exists some techniques, which help to hedge against the systematic risk of a security.


A good measure of an asset’s systematic risk is its Beta. Beta is calculated by regressing the returns of a particular asset on market returns. It can be interpreted as, say the beta of a stock is 1.25, then whenever the market moves by 1%, the stock will move by 1.25%.


Unsystematic risk: is the variation in the return of a scrip due to that scrip specific factors or movements. For example, say the Government announces tax sops to companies in a particular sector, it is going to effect the prices of the stocks of companies which are operating in that sector and not all the stocks.

Measuring risk


We can measure risk in two ways – Ex post and Ex ante risk measurement. Ex post measurement is done after the happening of an event and Ex ante measurement is done before the happening of an event.


Ex post Risk


When risk is measured ex post, it is measured as Variance from the mean value. That is, it is the statistical measure of Variance associated with the returns on a particular asset. For example, if one wants to measure risk associated with a particular stock, he will take the returns generated on the stock over a period of time and then he will find out the variance in the return of that particular stock. That variance will be the risk of that stock.


Ex ante Risk


When it is measured ex ante, it is measured as the probability that the returns from an asset will deviate from the mean or the expected returns. For this, if the variable has a normal distribution, the Theory of Normal distribution can be easily applied to find out the probability of this deviation. Otherwise subjective estimates of the probability have to be made.


For example, say the changes in a stock price have normal distribution. One can take the mean return based on the past return of the stock. Then, using the Standard Normal probability distribution, he can find out the probability of the return on that stock falling below that mean or expected return.


If the stock price is not normally distributed, then he will have to make subjective estimates of probabilities of getting a particular return. Using that, he can find out what is the expected return on that stock. Then the risk on that stock is the statistical measure of variance in return of that stock from the expected return.


Hedging risks associated with equity investments


Risk Hedging encapsulates all the activities required to ensure that the exposure, one is having, on account of the risk, doesn’t transform into loss. That is, the exposure is only a notional loss, which might transform into actual loss on happening of a particular event, but if necessary steps are taken to control, manage and diversify away the risk, this exposure can be controlled. All the activities undertaken to do so collectively comes under the purview of risk hedging.


In the following section, we present some of the commonly used techniques for managing risks:


Use of derivatives: Derivatives are most commonly used to hedge against the market risk. The use of the type of derivative instrument depends upon the expectations. An example will make the point clear. Say, you have 100 Reliance shares, the market price of which is presently RS. 300. Now you expect that the price of Reliance might go down in the future due to some reason. To hedge yourself against this risk, you can buy a Put option on Reliance’s stock and lock in a price. If the price actually falls, you can sell those shares at the price you contracted through Put option. If you expect prices to rise and you want to buy shares in the future, you can buy a Call option on Reliance’s stock.


To learn more about derivative basics, click here (a link to our derivative channel).


As of now, the use of derivatives on individual securities is not allowed in India. Sometime back, the use of any derivative instrument was not allowed in India. But now the SEBI has allowed the use of Index Futures on BSE and NSE. Soon, these Futures instruments will start trading on other exchanges also. And in due of course of time, the entire range of derivative instruments will be allowed in India.


Making a portfolio: To guard yourself against market risk, you can also make a portfolio of stocks whose returns are negatively correlated with each other. If you make a portfolio of two stocks whose correlation co-efficient is –1 (minus 1), then your market risk is minimized.